Very interesting article from Radio New Zealand:

“Climate Commissioner Rod Carr has told farmers to clean up their practices or risk international punishment. Dr Carr told hundreds of people - including farmers - at an agricultural climate change conference in Wellington today that for the agricultural sector there would be no way to wriggle out of slashing emissions.

“He said in the past there had been a mindset in the agricultural sector that it should get exemptions because it was such an export powerhouse, but New Zealand's trading partners were increasingly making decisions based on the climate impact of products.”

I hadn’t though about it this way before. But he’s right. And this will probably happen faster than we realise—this decade probably.

Countries like China (huge export client) will probably turn a blind eye, given that their priority is still getting their population up to middle-income and higher-income status—no matter what.

But countries with big visible environmental movements are probably going to realise sooner or later that exporting products from such far-flung parts of the world is simply not a good stop-climate-change technique.

Of course, there’s always the argument of cargo transport vs plane/train/truck transport that will save various NZ export industries for a while, I guess. An example of this ‘paradox’: there are less carbon emissions per bottle from shipping Australian wine to the UK via cargo ship than there are trucking Sicilian wine to the UK (by truck + ferry).

More from Rod Carr:

“He said foreign regulators would not take kindly to exporters not pulling their weight, and this, combined with changing international consumers preferences, posed a much greater threat to business than local regulations.

"The world will hold countries to account," he said.

"So the challenge for New Zealand ... is what club do we want to be in?”

Indeed.

Another point he makes which has always rendered me a bit curious about New Zealand’s agricultural sector and its running defence:

“He said often those in New Zealand's agricultural sector argued that they were the most efficient farmers in the world.

"The most efficient what?" Carr said.

"The most efficient producer of ruminant pastoral meat and milk the way [New Zealand does] it.

"Well that's good, we defined a class and when we were the best in it. The Americans usually win the prize for that approach to the 'best of'."

Burrrrrrrrrrn.

Let’s face it: farmers in New Zealand are simply following the incentives society and the world’s financial system have put at their feet. Many of them are in debt. So, to be clear: there’s still a big place for agriculture in New Zealand. Probably it will end up being dragged—kicking and screaming—towards more organic farming and even—dare I say it—regenerative farming (which still involves livestock, but less).

But those exports are going to become a flashpoint, as will the perceived ‘decrease’ in quality of life that may follow if New Zealand becomes ‘less rich’ than it was as agricultural exports gradually fade away.

[Cover photo: RNZ / Claire Eastham-Farrelly]