Adventures of a Climate Criminal

View Original

Climate models are underestimating, not overestimating, Arctic ice melt

As a follow-up piece to yesterday’s post on Greenland, from Science Alert:

“The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which hold enough frozen water to lift oceans 65 metres, are tracking the UN's worst-case scenarios for sea level rise, researchers said Monday, highlighting flaws in current climate change models.”

So, yes, these “flaws” are in the “oh Jesus we underestimated how bad it will get” direction.

Dang it!

“Mass loss from 2007 to 2017 due to melt-water and crumbling ice aligned almost perfectly with the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's (IPCC) most extreme forecasts, which see the two ice sheets adding up to 40 centimetres (nearly 16 inches) to global oceans by 2100, they reported in Nature Climate Change.

“Such an increase would have a devastating impact worldwide, increasing the destructive power of storm surges and exposing coastal regions home to hundreds of millions of people to repeated and severe flooding.”

Bye bye New York!

Those pesky scientists just keep on going:

"We need to come up with a new worst-case scenario for the ice sheets because they are already melting at a rate in line with our current one," lead author Thomas Slater, a researcher at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the University of Leeds, told AFP.”

I propose calling this worst-case scenario, ‘The really quite bad scenario that will still underestimate sea-level rise as more negative feedback loops get loopin’.

Catchy, huh?